Islamic State fraying from within

Kurdish peshmerga forces inspect a destroyed building belonging to Islamic State militants on the outskirts of Tel Ward, west of Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, on the weekend. Photo: STRINGER

Beirut: The so-called Islamic State appears to be starting to fray from within, as dissent, defections and setbacks on the battlefield sap the group's strength and erode its aura of invincibility among those living under its despotic rule.
Reports of rising tensions between foreign and local fighters, aggressive and increasingly unsuccessful attempts to recruit local citizens for the front lines and a growing incidence of guerrilla attacks against Islamic State targets suggest the militants are struggling to sustain their carefully cultivated image as a fearsome fighting force drawing Muslims together under the umbrella of a utopian Islamic state.
The anecdotal reports, drawn from activists and residents of areas under Islamic State control, don't offer any indication that the group faces an immediate challenge to its stranglehold over the mostly Sunni provinces of eastern Syria and western Iraq that form the backbone of its self-proclaimed caliphate. Battlefield reversals have come mostly on the fringes of its territory, while organised opposition remains unlikely as long as viable alternatives are lacking and the fear of vicious retribution remains high, Syrians, Iraqis and analysts say.

A Shi'ite fighter on the weekend, in al-Alam, north of Tikrit, in Iraq, where Iraqi security forces and Shi'ite fighters are battling Islamic State. Photo: Reuters

The bigger threat to the Islamic State's capacity to endure, however, may come from within, as its grandiose promises collide with realities on the ground, said Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. "The key challenge facing ISIS right now is more internal than external," she said, using another term for the group. "We're seeing basically a failure of the central tenet of ISIS ideology, which is to unify people of different origins under the caliphate".

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Most striking are the growing signs of friction between the foreigners lured by its state-building experiment and local recruits, who have grown resentful of the preferential treatment meted out to the expatriates, including higher salaries and better living conditions.
Foreign fighters get to live in the cities, where coalition airstrikes are relatively rare because of the risk of civilian casualties, while Syrian fighters are required to serve in rural outposts more vulnerable to attacks, said an activist who opposes the Islamic State and lives in the town of Abu Kamal on Syria's border with Iraq. The activist spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Mourners at the funeral on the weekend of a Shi'ite fighter killed in clashes with Islamic State militants in Salahuddin province, Iraq. Photo: Reuters

Shootouts have erupted on several occasions on the streets of the town, including one last week between foreign fighters and Syrians who refused an order by a Kuwaiti commander to deploy to the front lines in Iraq, the activist said. The Syrian faction, under the command of Saddam Jamal, a former Free Syrian Army leader, remains in the town, keeping a tense and wary distance from the faction led by the Kuwaiti, he said.
In an incident in the Iraqi city of Ramadi in January, local allies battled a group made up mostly of Chechens after the foreigners decided to head back to Syria, according to Hassan al-Dulaimi, a retired police general who works with tribal fighters aligned against the Islamic State. "The Iraqis feared they were being abandoned," he said.
There have been signs, too, that some foreign jihadists are growing disillusioned, with activists in the Syrian provinces of Deir al-Zour and Raqqa describing several instances in which foreigners have sought local help to escape across the border to Turkey. The bodies of between 30 and 40 men, many of whom appeared to be Asian, were found last month in the Raqqa town of Tabqa. They are thought to be the remains of a group of jihadist fighters who tried to flee but were caught, according to the activist group Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, which monitors Islamic State activities.

An undated image from a militant website showing Islamic State fighters in Raqqa, Syria, city headquarters of the Islamic State. Photo: AP

New restrictions on travel in and out of areas controlled by the Islamic State have been imposed in recent weeks, including a prohibition on truck drivers transporting men without permission, the activist group says. Public executions, a core component of Islamic State discipline, have in recent weeks been extended to about 120 of the group's own members, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Some were accused of spying and one of smoking, but suspicions are widespread that most were simply fighters caught trying to flee.
Meanwhile, territorial losses in northern Syria and elsewhere in Iraq are contributing to the sense that the group that stunned the world with its triumphant sweep through Iraq and Syria last summer is now not only on the defensive but also struggling to find a coherent strategy to confront the multiple forces ranged against it.
A test of the Islamic State's military capabilities is the battle underway for control of Tikrit, the Sunni home town of Saddam Hussein. As the ethnic and sectarian sentiments driving the fight for territory harden across Syria and Iraq, a victory for the overwhelmingly Shiite forces would also test the ability of non-Sunni groups to retain hold over conquered Sunni territories, analysts say.

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters holding an Islamic State (IS) group flag in the village of Sultan Mari west of the city of Kirkuk, Iraq, on the weekend. Photo: AFP

Syrians say the bloodshed is deterring the recruitment of local citizens who were clamouring a few months ago for the opportunity to earn salaries by joining the only new source of employment available.
Increasingly, the Islamic State is recruiting fighters among children and teens who remain more vulnerable than older adults to the group's propaganda, said a businessman living in Raqqa who last week paid condolences to family friends whose 15-year-old son had been killed on the front line.
Intensified efforts to persuade Syrians to go to the front lines in Iraq include offers of up to US$800 ( $1000) a month in salary, according to Ahmed Mhidi, who arrived in Turkey two weeks ago from the Syrian city of Deir al-Zour and is setting up an opposition group called DZGraph. The offer has won few takers, he said.
Foreigners continue to volunteer, streaming across the Turkish border into the Islamic State's self-styled capital of Raqqa, according to residents there. The city's population has been swelled by thousands of Europeans, Asians, Arabs and Africans. Upon arrival they are given cars and apartments, and they mill about among the city's cafes and markets, lending a cosmopolitan air to streets where foreigners once were rare, according to Abu Ibrahim al-Raqqawi, the pseudonym of one of the founders of the Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently group, who now lives in Turkey. Many of the foreigners show little inclination to travel to the front lines, he said. "They just want to live in the Islamic State," he said. "They didn't come to fight." How useful they would be to the Islamic State's military efforts is also in question, said the Carnegie Middle East Center's Khatib.
Washington Post